02 Oct The Pro-European Majority Under Strain

On September 10, the State of the Union debate took place in Strasbourg at a very delicate moment for Europe, besieged on multiple fronts—both external and internal—and, unfortunately, without a clear direction, lacking leadership from the Commission, as well as stable political majorities in both Parliament and the Council. Anti-European forces are gaining ground, at times with the collaboration of the European People’s Party, which relies on them to push forward a right-wing, and of course non-Europeanist, agenda. In practice, this represents opposition to the program of the pro-European coalition—centrist and integrationist—that supported the election of Ursula von der Leyen herself and underpinned decades of successful European construction.

Against this backdrop, with the atmosphere in the corridors of the EU institutions more strained than ever due to these political dynamics, Ursula von der Leyen stepped up to the Parliament’s lectern shortly after 9 a.m. on Wednesday, September 10, to the full expectation of the chamber. The Commission President opened her speech addressing the continent’s serious security challenges: gripped by an ongoing war of aggression in Ukraine, unsettled by the news that very morning of a violation of Polish airspace, and shocked by a Trump Administration that one day announces territorial ambitions over EU land (Greenland) and the next deepens its friendship with Putin. “This must be the moment of Europe’s independence,” von der Leyen declared.

With this leitmotif, the Commission President outlined a shared horizon of common security, though this sat somewhat uneasily with her tariff agreement with Trump, which she defended as a lesser evil while awaiting other European reforms to increase our autonomy. In this spirit, she announced further investment in common defense, a plan to genuinely consolidate the single market in areas such as energy, telecommunications, banking, and finance; sectoral programs on artificial intelligence, clean industry, trade protection, an anti-poverty strategy, the design of a European housing policy, strengthened food security, trade agreements with Mercosur and Mexico, continuation of climate commitments, and reinforcement of democracy. Indeed, von der Leyen’s address offered a collection of proposals and ideas in which the majority that supported her election could see themselves represented. Moreover, for the first time, she put forward concrete proposals to respond to Netanyahu’s genocide in Gaza, embracing an agenda in this field to which she had long resisted committing.

We could therefore agree that her speech represented an attempt to revitalize and reenergize her parliamentary majority, badly weakened by the behavior of the European People’s Party, led by fellow German Manfred Weber, but also by her own actions on fundamental issues such as Gaza or relations with the United States. Her record of legislative proposals had not helped either, as they were clearly geared toward feeding a more conservative agenda, with hardly any initiatives aligned with the concerns and priorities of the more progressive wing of her investiture coalition—namely, the socialists.

However, after von der Leyen’s conciliatory gesture came Manfred Weber’s cold shower. The leader of the People’s Party used his speech to launch a direct attack on the Socialist group. Weber essentially stated that the pro-European coalition would only remain viable if it advanced the People’s Party agenda without any nuance or concessions to the proposals of the Socialists, Liberals, and Greens. Worse still, he personally targeted the leader of the Socialist group and spent much of his limited speaking time attempting to divide us, distinguishing between “good” and “bad” socialists. Weber’s tirade not only undermined von der Leyen’s attempt to restore some climate of cooperation but, as Iratxe García replied afterwards, positioned him quite clearly as the president of the Commission’s main rival and the principal obstacle to the pro-European majority.

Thus, we will see how events unfold in this new political cycle. The Socialists want to continue contributing and cooperating in the governance of the Union, despite the EPP’s efforts to sideline us. It is in von der Leyen’s hands to take—or not take—the initiative in the decisive years ahead. Stay tuned.